Bakers Warn Bread Price May Exceed US$1 as Flour Costs Surge

Zimbabwean bakers warn that bread prices could exceed US$1 amid surging flour costs, inflationary pressures, and supply-chain challenges, prompting government engagement on affordability (image source)

HARARE – Zimbabwe’s bakers have sounded the alarm over a proposed hike in flour prices, warning that the cost of a standard loaf of bread could soon exceed US$1, further straining household budgets amid a deepening cost-of-living crisis.

In a letter dated 24 October 2025 addressed to Industry and Commerce Minister Mangaliso Ndlovu, the National Bakers Association of Zimbabwe (NBAZ) expressed concern over a proposal by the Grain Millers Association of Zimbabwe (GMAZ) to increase the price of bread flour by up to 30%.

“The proposed flour price adjustment is unsustainable and will inevitably push bread prices beyond the reach of ordinary Zimbabweans,” wrote NBAZ president Elvis Ncube.

Currently, a standard loaf of bread retails at US$0.90 to US$1.00, depending on the outlet and location. A flour price increase of the magnitude proposed by GMAZ could push retail prices to US$1.10 or more, according to NBAZ estimates.

The warning comes as inflationary pressures mount, with the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZIMSTAT) reporting a month-on-month inflation rate of 4.2% in September, driven largely by food and transport costs. Bread, a staple in most urban households, has already seen a 15% price increase since July.

“Bread is not a luxury; it’s a basic necessity,” said consumer rights advocate Tariro Mupfumi. “A price hike will hit low-income families the hardest.”

GMAZ has defended the proposed increase, citing rising global wheat prices, higher transport costs, and the depreciation of the Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG) currency.

“We are not profiteering; we are trying to stay afloat,” said a GMAZ official who requested anonymity. “The cost of wheat on the international market has surged, and local logistics are increasingly expensive.”

Minister Ndlovu has acknowledged receipt of the NBAZ letter and said the government is engaging both parties to find a solution that balances affordability with business viability.

“We are committed to ensuring food security while supporting local industry,” Ndlovu said in a brief statement.

Economists warn that a bread price increase could trigger a ripple effect across the food value chain, affecting school feeding programs, bakeries, and informal vendors.

“Bread is a price signal in the economy,” said economist Dr. Nyasha Kaseke. “When it goes up, it affects perceptions of inflation and erodes consumer confidence.”

The government is reportedly considering temporary subsidies or tax relief for millers and bakers to cushion the impact. However, fiscal space remains limited, and any intervention would need to be carefully targeted.

Meanwhile, urban consumers are bracing for yet another blow to their purchasing power. Some bakeries have already begun reducing loaf sizes or switching to alternative grains to manage costs.