DRC presidents headed for showdown

Tensions escalate in the DRC as President Tshisekedi and former leader Joseph Kabila head toward a political showdown following Kabila’s death-sentence ruling and renewed opposition mobilisation (image source)

Political tensions in the Democratic Republic of Congo have intensified as President Félix Tshisekedi and former president Joseph Kabila appear to be moving toward a direct confrontation. The standoff follows a military court ruling that sentenced Kabila in absentia on charges including treason and alleged collaboration with armed groups — a judgment that has reignited fears of political instability and deepened national polarisation.

Kabila has re-emerged in Nairobi, where he joined opposition leaders and civil-society groups to launch a new coalition, Sauvons la RDC (Save the DRC). The alliance positions itself as a defender of constitutional order and accuses Tshisekedi’s government of centralising power. The coalition has adopted a roadmap focused on political reform and crisis resolution, signalling coordinated mobilisation ahead of what could become a sustained national challenge to the president.

The ruling against Kabila has become a flashpoint, drawing warnings from regional observers and human-rights groups who argue that criminalising a major opposition figure risks undermining the credibility of the judiciary if viewed as politically motivated. Government officials insist the case is linked to wartime security violations, while Kabila’s allies describe it as a targeted effort to eliminate a formidable rival from Congo’s political arena.

Diplomatic pressure is growing behind the scenes as regional bodies and foreign governments call for restraint to avoid a widening crisis. Analysts caution that a direct confrontation between Tshisekedi’s administration and Kabila’s political network would place significant strain on state institutions including the military, judiciary and provincial governments. Heightened tensions could mobilise mass protests, sharpen elite divisions and complicate security efforts in conflict-affected eastern regions.

Power struggle moves into new phases

The unfolding battle is expected to involve legal appeals, street mobilisation, media influence campaigns and international lobbying. While Kabila’s current power within the military and provincial structures remains debated, his renewed prominence as a unifying figure for the opposition increases the risks for the ruling establishment and raises the stakes for any negotiated solution.

Whether the situation leads to compromise or deeper confrontation will depend on decisions taken in the coming weeks — a volatile period that may shape Congo’s democratic trajectory and regional stability.