Mozambique LNG Edges Toward Restart

The proposed Mozambique LNG project (image source)

TotalEnergies’ long-stalled $20 billion Mozambique LNG project is edging closer to a formal restart, with signals from both Maputo and the French energy major suggesting that security, financing, and contractor readiness are aligning. President Daniel Chapo stated in late July that he expected to conclude talks with TotalEnergies on resumption, while Energy Minister Carlos Zacarias confirmed that the government has created the necessary environment to proceed. After years under force majeure following the 2021 Palma attack, the project could re-mobilise on the Afungi Peninsula, unlocking dormant contracts and supply chains stretching from Pemba to Nacala.

A critical indicator of momentum lies some 13,000 kilometres away in Korea’s shipyards. HD Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries and Samsung Heavy Industries have repeatedly extended letters of intent to keep 17 LNG-carrier berths reserved for Mozambique LNG, now through the end of August 2025. Industry sources report that the shipbuilders are holding price guarantees and production slots—an unusual, years-long move that underscores both the project’s scale and the uncertainty surrounding its timeline. Activist groups claim TotalEnergies has postponed the order seven times.

Financing developments are also gaining traction. In March, reports confirmed that the U.S. Export-Import Bank had re-approved nearly $5 billion in debt support for Mozambique LNG, reinstating a crucial element of the project’s complex capital structure. Analysts note that such commitments often trigger parallel guarantees from European credit agencies. Meanwhile, broader LNG strategy signals suggest that TotalEnergies is prioritising lower-cost options and a disciplined restart in Mozambique over higher-risk ventures elsewhere.

Security, however, remains the deciding factor. Recent reports highlight renewed displacements in Cabo Delgado due to insurgent incidents, indicating that while Rwandan and SADC forces have weakened IS-linked militants, the threat has not been eliminated. TotalEnergies has stressed that strong community relations, human rights protections, and contractor welfare are non-negotiable conditions for restarting operations. The company has also cautioned against the “resource curse” should governance and local development fail to keep pace with expected revenues.

For Zimbabwe and neighbouring countries, a restart could generate significant economic ripples. Beitbridge-to-Cabo Delgado trucking routes, Harare-based engineering consultancies, and regional banks could benefit from renewed procurement activity. In parallel, Korea’s orders for LNG carriers—both for Mozambique and other global projects—could create a medium-term oversupply of vessels, potentially influencing freight rates for African LNG exports, including from Eni’s already-producing Coral Sul FLNG and any future expansion projects.

If current momentum continues, 2026 could mark the visible build-up of site activity and the resumption of community development programmes around Afungi, signalling one of Africa’s largest LNG projects returning to life.