Zimbabwe Economy Rebased to US$52.4 Billion, Now Second Largest in Southern Africa
- Southerton Business Times
- 2 days ago
- 2 min read
The Zimbabwe economy has been officially rebased to an estimated US$52.4 billion for 2025, positioning it as the second-largest economy in Southern Africa after South Africa. The revised figures were released by the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZimStat) following a comprehensive economic census conducted in 2023, which captured previously underreported sectors, particularly the informal economy.
The Zimbabwe GDP rebasing 2025 exercise revised the country’s economic size to:
US$44.5 billion for 2023
US$45.7 billion for 2024
US$52.4 billion projection for 2025
The update reflects structural shifts in the economy over the past decade, especially the rapid expansion of informal businesses that had not been fully accounted for under the previous 2012 base year.
Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube said the new figures strengthen Zimbabwe’s economic outlook:
“The updated data improves our economic metrics and supports our trajectory towards Vision 2030.”
A key outcome of the rebasing is the recognition of Zimbabwe’s large informal sector, now estimated to generate around US$14.2 billion annually. Economist Prosper Chitambara said this reflects reality on the ground:
“The rebasing corrects years of underestimation. A significant portion of economic activity has been happening outside formal channels.”
Thousands of small businesses that emerged after 2019 have now been incorporated into official statistics, significantly expanding the country’s GDP base.
Zimbabwe’s economic growth outlook 2025 remains robust, with projections anchored on 6.6% real GDP growth, driven by:
Agriculture growth of 24%
Mining expansion of 7.3%
Manufacturing growth of 4.2%
The agricultural rebound, in particular, has played a central role in boosting output and exports.
The rebasing has significantly improved Zimbabwe’s fiscal metrics. Under the new framework, the debt-to-GDP ratio has declined to 45%, down from around 60%. Treasury, led by Permanent Secretary George Guvamatanga, is now operating from a stronger fiscal position, improving the country’s case in ongoing arrears clearance talks. Zimbabwe’s total public debt, estimated at around US$23 billion, now appears more manageable relative to the expanded GDP base.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) independently estimates Zimbabwe’s economy at US$53.3 billion, closely aligning with official figures. Meanwhile, the World Bank projects 5% economic growth in 2026, noting that Zimbabwe is outperforming several sub-Saharan African peers.
The rebasing reshapes Zimbabwe’s regional ranking, placing it ahead of several Southern African economies:
Zambia – US$28.9 billion
Mozambique – US$23.8 billion
Botswana – US$19.4 billion
Namibia – US$14.2 billion
Malawi – US$14 billion
Experts caution that GDP rebasing does not create new wealth, but rather updates how economic activity is measured.
“Zimbabwe did not suddenly become a US$50 billion economy—it has been one for years. The data has simply caught up,” one analyst noted.
Similar exercises in countries like Nigeria and Ghana delivered mixed long-term benefits, highlighting the need for continued reforms.
Economists say Zimbabwe’s advantage lies in combining rebasing with broader macroeconomic stabilisation, including lower inflation and improved fiscal discipline. Attention is also turning to revenue mobilisation, with current revenues at about 15% of GDP. Aligning with regional averages could unlock an estimated US$780 million annually without increasing tax rates. The Zimbabwe economy's rebasing in 2025 marks a major statistical milestone, but sustained growth will depend on policy consistency, investment, and structural transformation.
what Zimbabwe GDP rebasing means 2025
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