Zimbabwe Faces Drier 2026/27 Rainy Season

Most of Zimbabwe is forecast to receive below-normal rainfall during the 2026/27 season.

Zimbabwe is facing a potentially difficult 2026/27 rainy season, with most of the country expected to receive below-normal rainfall as a strong El Niño develops over the Pacific, according to the latest regional climate outlook.

The forecast was issued at the 33rd Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-33), held in Swakopmund, Namibia, from August 25 to 28. Climate experts from SADC national meteorological and hydrological services and the SADC Climate Services Centre developed the consensus forecast with input from international climate centres, including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the UK Met Office.

The outlook covers the main October 2026 to March 2027 rainfall season and indicates an increased probability of below-normal rainfall across large parts of central and southern Southern Africa.

Zimbabwe among high-risk areas

For Zimbabwe, the outlook remains consistently dry across most of the country during the season. Between October and December 2026, most of Zimbabwe falls within an area with an increased chance of below-normal rainfall, with the forecast carrying high confidence. The dry signal continues from November 2026 to January 2027, with much of Zimbabwe again expected to experience below-normal rainfall.

The outlook for December 2026 to February 2027 and January to March 2027 also places the bulk of Zimbabwe within the zone with increased chances of below-normal rainfall. Southern Zimbabwe is forecast to receive normal to below-normal rainfall during the January-to-March period. The forecast could have significant implications for agriculture, water supplies, livestock and rural livelihoods, particularly if rainfall deficits are accompanied by prolonged periods of high temperatures.

El Niño is driving the outlook

Scientists say El Niño conditions are already established in the tropical Pacific and are expected to strengthen, potentially reaching strong to very strong intensity during the October-November-December (OND) 2026 period. The El Niño conditions are expected to persist into early 2027. Strong El Niño events are generally associated with reduced rainfall across large parts of central and southern Southern Africa, although the effects vary between countries and within individual countries.

A strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also expected to develop by September and persist through the OND period. Climate scientists say the IOD could either strengthen or moderate the influence of El Niño at the local level, meaning actual rainfall may vary from the broader regional pattern.

Dry conditions across SADC

The forecast shows that the risk of below-normal rainfall extends beyond Zimbabwe. During OND, much of Angola, southern Zambia, Mozambique, Namibia, Botswana, South Africa, Eswatini and Lesotho are also expected to have increased chances of below-normal rainfall. The rainfall pattern is forecast to shift southward during November-January, while dry conditions are expected to persist across much of the central and southern parts of the region later in the season.

The core dry zone from December to February includes most of Angola, the bulk of Zambia, central and southern Malawi, central Mozambique, Namibia, Botswana, western South Africa and much of Zimbabwe. Northern parts of the region are expected to fare better. Eastern Tanzania and extreme northern Mozambique have consistently been forecast to receive above-normal rainfall through March 2027, while the Comoros, Seychelles and Mauritius are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall.

Temperatures expected to rise

The temperature outlook also points to a warmer season. Most of the SADC region has a high probability of experiencing above-normal temperatures between October 2026 and January 2027. Cooler-than-normal conditions are expected mainly over central to northeastern parts of the region. For Zimbabwe, the combination of below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures could increase pressure on water resources and agriculture during the coming season.

The SARCOF outlook is a seasonal probability forecast rather than a prediction that every location will experience drought. Conditions can vary within the forecast zones, and rainfall distribution during the season will remain important. However, the high-confidence dry signal covering much of Zimbabwe provides an early warning for farmers, water managers, policymakers, and communities to prepare for a potentially challenging season.

Zimbabwe 2026/27 rainy season