Zimbabwe’s Export Sector Surges, Narrowing Trade Deficit

Zimbabwe’s export earnings surged to US$8.57 billion in 2025, narrowing the trade deficit by 69% as record monthly exports signal growing momentum towards an export-led economy (image source)

HARARE — Zimbabwe’s export sector is gaining strong momentum, marking a significant step towards an export-led growth model as rising earnings and record monthly performances sharply narrow the country’s trade deficit.

According to the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZimStat), cumulative export earnings for January to November 2025 reached US$8.57 billion, representing a 27% increase from US$6.74 billion recorded in the same period in 2024. Over the same period, the national trade deficit narrowed by 69%, declining from US$2.1 billion in 2024 to US$644 million in 2025.

October and November 2025 marked a historic milestone, with exports reaching US$1 billion in each month for the first time. If current trends persist, Zimbabwe’s merchandise exports are projected to reach US$9.12 billion by year-end, surpassing the national target of US$8.1 billion. At this level, exports would account for approximately 19% of GDP in 2025.

Data indicates a gradual structural shift in the export base. Value-added exports rose 29%, from US$404 million in 2024 to US$522 million in 2025, while service exports increased 12% to US$485.6 million. ZimTrade said the growing share of value-added exports strengthens earnings potential, supports job creation, and improves resilience to external shocks.

Market diversification remains a key driver of performance. The United Arab Emirates emerged as Zimbabwe’s largest export destination, with exports surging 71.6% to US$4.16 billion, largely driven by gold shipments. South Africa accounted for 22.8% of exports, while China ranked third at 16.9%. Regional trade also recorded growth, with exports to Mozambique rising 13% and Zambia increasing 1.8%.

Several sectors recorded strong gains during the period. Building and construction materials surged 292% to US$96.3 million, driven mainly by steel products. Manufactured tobacco exports grew 17.5% to US$109 million, while arts and crafts exports rose to US$13.1 million, reflecting growing niche market demand.

However, performance was uneven across sectors. Unmanufactured tobacco exports declined 3.9% to US$1.12 billion, processed food exports fell to US$88.8 million, and pharmaceutical exports dropped sharply by 28% to US$3.6 million.

Overall, Zimbabwe’s export performance in 2025 signals meaningful progress towards an export-led economy. Analysts caution, however, that sustaining and broadening these gains will require addressing structural weaknesses, including limited industrial depth, continued reliance on primary commodities, and high market concentration.