Zimbabwe Tipped as 2025 Growth Leader — Growth Numbers, Fragile Foundations

The IMF projects Zimbabwe’s economy to grow by 6% in 2025, driven by agriculture and commodities (image source)

Zimbabwe is forecast to be one of Southern Africa’s best-performing economies in 2025, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projecting a sharp rebound to around 6 percent GDP growth driven by improved agriculture, rising commodity prices and infrastructure spending.

Early-morning traders at Harare’s Granary Market described a steadier flow of goods and buyers compared with last year, saying higher farm output has eased food shortages for some staples and boosted informal trade. A maize trader who asked not to be named said prices feel “less volatile” and deliveries are more regular than during the drought season, but added that credit remains tight for small wholesalers. Smallholder farmers in Mashonaland reported larger harvests this season after better rains, though several cautioned that elevated fertiliser and fuel costs continue to squeeze margins.

The IMF’s regional outlook highlights Zimbabwe’s rebound as part of a broader Sub-Saharan resilience story, while warning that macroeconomic vulnerabilities and financing pressures could offset gains. Local summaries of the IMF projections emphasise agriculture, gold prices and remittance inflows as principal growth drivers, and place Zimbabwe ahead of regional peers such as South Africa and Zambia in 2025 growth forecasts.

Economists say the headline growth rate masks distributional and sustainability risks. An independent macroeconomist in Harare noted that headline GDP gains can be concentrated in commodity and mining sectors, and urged scrutiny of whether growth is translating into jobs, fiscal stability and improved public services. The IMF itself flagged overlapping monetary, fiscal and external vulnerabilities that could derail momentum without stronger revenue mobilisation and debt management.

Official optimism contrasts with persistent structural gaps: weak foreign exchange buffers, heavy reliance on volatile gold prices, and the recent introduction of the new ZIG currency that has yet to fully stabilise exchange markets. Observers question whether a one-off boost from commodity cycles and isolated agricultural gains can produce durable recovery without measurable policy reforms to restore investor confidence and expand private credit.

If growth is sustained and broad-based, poverty reduction and fiscal breathing room could follow. If it isn’t, the economy risks repeating past cycles where short-term commodity booms obscure lingering financing shortfalls and inequality.