Cameroon 2025 Elections: Risks of Manipulation and What to Watch

Cameroon’s 2025 presidential election faces structural risks of manipulation (image source)

Cameroon heads toward a pivotal presidential election in 2025, and few doubt that 91-year-old Paul Biya, the world’s oldest sitting head of state and in power since 1982, will seek another mandate. Yet the question is less who will win than how the process will unfold. Persistent concerns about institutional capture, opaque voter management, and restricted observer access continue to shadow the credibility of the vote.

Cameroon’s political structure remains heavily centralised. The presidency controls administrative, security, and judicial levers that shape every stage of the electoral process. Elections Cameroon (Elecam), the official management body, is nominally independent but staffed largely by figures perceived as close to the ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM).

Recent leaks and civil-society reports allege irregularities in voter-card distribution, including claims that uncollected cards have been redirected to unknown recipients. If substantiated, such practices could enable inflated turnout figures or targeted ballot-stuffing. The government dismisses these allegations as unfounded, but Elecam has yet to provide a comprehensive public audit of voter-roll integrity.

Key Indicators to Monitor

Voter-Card Management – Independent verification of the total number of printed, collected, and uncollected cards will be essential. Any mismatch between registered voters and issued cards could distort participation data.

Transparency in Tabulation – The openness of counting at polling stations and the secure, verifiable transmission of tallies to regional and national centres will determine whether parallel vote-tabulation efforts can cross-check results.

Observer Access – The presence of credible domestic monitors and international observer missions will influence both transparency and post-election acceptance. Restrictions on observer mobility or late accreditation would raise red flags.

Communication of Results – Timely, constituency-level publication of results allows cross-referencing against local copies of count sheets, curbing opportunities for manipulation during central aggregation.

Possible Scenarios

High-risk scenario: manipulation of voter lists and opaque tabulation secure a comfortable victory for the incumbent but trigger opposition rejection and potential unrest.

Medium-risk scenario: localized irregularities and administrative bias tilt outcomes without full fabrication, producing legal challenges and street protests in major cities.

Low-risk scenario: comprehensive observer access, transparent tabulation, and swift release of verifiable data lend the process enough credibility for broad acceptance.

Priorities for Observers and Journalists

Credible scrutiny will depend on granular, documented evidence rather than broad accusations. Reporters and monitors should track:

• audit trails for voter-card issuance and returns;

• chain-of-custody documentation for ballots;

• photographic or digital copies of local count sheets; and

• consistency between constituency and national tallies.

The risk of electoral manipulation in Cameroon’s 2025 vote is not hypothetical; it is structural. The extent to which transparency measures are enforced before, during, and after polling will determine whether the election is seen as a managed ritual or a genuine contest. For observers and the media, vigilance over procedures, not personalities, will be the true measure of democracy’s pulse in Yaoundé.