CZI Survey Exposes Deepening Dollarisation as De-Dollarisation Strategy Falters

A new CZI survey shows deepening dollarisation in Zimbabwe, with over 70% of transactions now in USD (image source)

The latest Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries (CZI) survey leaves little doubt that Zimbabwe’s much-vaunted de-dollarisation strategy is struggling to gain traction in the real economy. Far from reversing dollarisation, current trends suggest it is accelerating, with both businesses and consumers continuing to demonstrate a strong preference for the United States dollar.

According to the CZI 2025 Third Quarter Business Insights Report, about 73% of firm-level transactions are now settled in USD, a level that underscores persistent mistrust in the local currency framework and a widening gap between policy intentions and market realities. A sectoral breakdown reinforces this trend, showing intensified dollarisation across nearly all industries. Construction was the only sector to record a marginal decline, with USD sales easing slightly to 70% from 71% in 2024. Manufacturing, widely regarded as the backbone of industrial growth and value addition, registered one of the sharpest increases, with USD transactions rising to 75% from 67% over the same period.

The transport sector remains the least dollarised, but even here USD usage climbed significantly from 56% to 66%, reflecting the growing difficulty of operating in local currency terms. Analysts attribute the residual use of ZiG largely to commuter omnibus operators who still require small denominations to provide change. Domestic sales data further illustrate the weakening position of the local currency. Over the first nine months of 2025, 78% of domestic sales by large-scale firms were settled in USD, around six percentage points higher than small firms. However, the relatively narrow gap across firm sizes suggests that dollarisation is now deeply entrenched across the broader economy.

Equally concerning is how companies are sourcing foreign currency. The survey shows that 84,2% of firms now rely on domestic USD sales to meet their foreign currency requirements, up from 79% in 2024. By contrast, the banking system and interbank market supplied just 9% of firms’ forex needs, down sharply from 14% last year. Export proceeds, the most sustainable source of foreign currency, accounted for only 2,1%, pointing to weakening export competitiveness and a shrinking external earnings base. Economists warn that an economy dependent on recycling foreign currency domestically, rather than generating it through exports, risks long-term stagnation.

Despite reported reserves of around US$1 billion, the Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG) currency remains marginal in key sectors such as manufacturing and retail, where ZiG transactions account for just 20–30% of sales. The message from the CZI survey is unequivocal: de-dollarisation cannot be legislated into existence. Without sustained fiscal discipline, policy consistency, a credible foreign exchange market and renewed export competitiveness, the US dollar is likely to remain dominant in Zimbabwe’s economy.