Strong El Niño Raises Drought Fears for Zimbabwe Ahead of 2026/27 Season

The El Niño event developing over the Pacific Ocean could become one of the strongest on record, with the UK Met Office warning that the phenomenon could contribute to 2027 becoming the hottest year ever recorded globally.

The powerful natural climate pattern raises global temperatures and can disrupt weather patterns, increasing the risk of droughts, floods, heatwaves and other extreme weather events. The Met Office says it is “very likely” that 2027 will set a new global temperature record as the effects of El Niño combine with ongoing human-induced climate change.

According to BBC News, there is already growing evidence that the developing El Niño is influencing weather patterns in different parts of the world. India has experienced below-average monsoon rainfall, while hurricane activity in the Atlantic has been suppressed.

“We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event,” said Prof Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the UK Met Office.

“I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts.”

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that develops in the tropical Pacific Ocean, generally every two to seven years, and typically lasts around a year. Under normal conditions, trade winds blow from east to west across the Pacific. During an El Niño event, those winds weaken or sometimes reverse, allowing unusually warm water to move eastwards towards the Americas. The warmer ocean releases additional heat into the atmosphere, raising global temperatures and disrupting rainfall patterns around the world.

Scientists generally identify an El Niño event when sea surface temperatures in a key region of the Pacific are at least 0.5°C above the long-term average.

Current measurements are reportedly more than 2°C above normal, while Met Office forecasts suggest temperatures could rise above 3°C later this year as the event approaches its peak.

If temperatures reach those levels, the event would be unprecedented in records dating back to 1950 and could represent the strongest El Niño since the 19th century, according to the Met Office.

Deep ocean heat could fuel event

Scientists are also monitoring unusually warm water deeper in the Pacific Ocean. In some areas, temperatures around 100 metres below the surface are reportedly about 8°C above normal. This reservoir of warm water could provide additional heat to the surface and help sustain or intensify the El Niño event. Some climate researchers have suggested that the event could become even stronger than current Met Office projections, potentially reaching 4°C above average in the relevant sea-surface temperature measure.

Climate scientist Dr Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth warned that such an outcome could potentially make this one of the strongest El Niño events in several centuries.

“If this comes to pass, it’s not beyond the realm of possibility to say this might be the strongest El Niño event in 500 or even 1,000 years,” Hausfather said.

Zimbabwe faces drought risk

For Zimbabwe, the developing El Niño is a major concern ahead of the 2026/27 agricultural season. El Niño conditions have historically been associated with below-average rainfall across much of southern Africa, raising the risk of drought, crop failures, water shortages and extreme heat. Farmers and communities could therefore face another challenging season if forecasts of reduced rainfall materialise.

However, the eventual impact on Zimbabwe will depend on the strength and duration of the El Niño event, as well as regional weather patterns. Authorities, farmers and businesses will need to closely monitor seasonal forecasts and prepare for the possibility of below-normal rainfall and elevated temperatures. The developing event also highlights the growing importance of climate resilience, particularly for Zimbabwe's agriculture, water, energy and food-security sectors.

Niño Zimbabwe 2026/27