Tobacco Sector Eyes Surplus Year as Hectarage and Yields Surge

Tobacco Farm

By Staff Reporter

Zimbabwe’s tobacco industry is bracing for a potentially record harvest after farmers planted 162,625 hectares this season and agronomists reported exceptional crop development at the pre‑harvest stage. Industry sources say higher seed sales, expanded hectarage, and favourable weather to date point to a national crop that could surpass 400 million kilograms, a threshold that would mark one of the strongest production years in recent memory.

A senior agronomist with a leading merchant company, speaking on condition of anonymity, said field assessments across Mashonaland West and parts of Mashonaland Central revealed uniformly healthy stands and vigorous leaf growth. “We can confidently say that this year’s crop is the most impressive we have seen in this region at the pre‑harvest stage,” the agronomist said, while cautioning that heavy rains could still affect outcomes through leaching and waterlogging.

Regional planting patterns show a marked shift in production geography. As of 9 January 2026, Mashonaland West led with 51,117 hectare a 43 percent increase from the previous season, followed by Mashonaland Central with 49,256 hectares and Mashonaland East with 31,417 hectares (a 40 percent rise). Manicaland recorded 30,133 hectares, Midlands 544 hectares, Masvingo 118 hectares, and Matebeleland North a modest 40 hectares.

Market participants are upbeat about the supply outlook but warn of the economic risks of oversupply. “We are heading for a surplus year and an oversupply of tobacco serves no one’s interests,” the anonymous agronomist said. The concern is straightforward: when supply outpaces demand, auction prices fall. Industry insiders predict that by the third quarter, after contractors recover their investments, the market could become saturated, leaving many bales unsold or rejected at auction floors. Several merchants still hold stocks from the previous season, which could compound downward price pressure.

New entrants and alternative auction floors are positioning themselves to capture market share amid the expansion. Tyson Ngongoni, general manager of Ethical Sales Floor, said the company is encouraged by the crop’s performance and plans to offer competitive payment terms to attract growers. “The tobacco growth will boost our entrance into the market,” Ngongoni said, adding that their payment plan will be central to service delivery.

Grower organisations emphasise resilience and inclusion. George Seremwe, president of the Zimbabwe Tobacco Growers Association, applauded farmers’ efforts and said the expanded hectarage signals confidence in the sector. He outlined priorities for the season: improved yields, greater inclusion of small‑scale growers, lower input costs, and fairer contract terms.

Export prospects remain strong, with China continuing to be a major buyer. Yet the sector’s immediate challenge is balancing production gains with market absorption. Policymakers, merchants, and grower associations will need to coordinate on marketing strategies, stock management, and price support mechanisms to prevent a glut that could erode incomes across the value chain.