Zimbabwe Braces for Dry and Erratic 2026/27 Rainfall Season

By Staff Reporter | Harare

Zimbabwe is heading into a potentially difficult 2026/27 rainfall season, with the Meteorological Services Department (MSD) forecasting predominantly below-normal and erratic rainfall between October 2026 and March 2027.

The national climate outlook points to an increased risk of prolonged dry spells, warmer-than-normal temperatures and an unreliable start to the rainy season, raising concerns for agriculture, water supplies and livestock. The forecast is being driven largely by the influence of El Niño, with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also contributing to the expected weather pattern.

The government has already begun preparations for the anticipated dry conditions, with authorities urging ministries, farmers and other stakeholders to strengthen contingency measures, conserve water and prepare for possible humanitarian and economic impacts.

The MSD's outlook covers the two three-month periods of October-November-December 2026 and January-February-March 2027.

For October to December, the country has a high probability of below-normal rainfall. The outlook becomes somewhat more mixed between January and March, with the southern and western parts of Zimbabwe expected to receive rainfall within the normal range but with a bias towards below-normal totals. Most of the remainder of the country is expected to remain biased towards below-normal rainfall.

The department has stressed that the seasonal forecast should not be interpreted as meaning that every location will remain dry throughout the period. Actual rainfall will depend on shorter-term weather systems and local atmospheric conditions, meaning some areas could still experience periods of heavy rain despite the overall seasonal dry signal.

Erratic start to rainy season

One of the major concerns is the timing of the onset of the rainy season. The MSD said Zimbabwe's rainfall season normally begins between November and early December. However, the forthcoming season is expected to be highly erratic, with a significant part of the country potentially experiencing no effective start to the rainy season.

Historical seasons used as analogues for the current outlook include 2023/24 and 2015/16, both of which were associated with widespread failures of the seasonal rainfall onset. The implications are significant for farmers who rely on rainfall to determine when to plant. An unreliable start could result in farmers planting after isolated rainfall events only for crops to face prolonged dry spells, increasing the risk of poor germination and crop failure. The government has therefore been urging farmers to strengthen climate-smart agricultural practices and prepare for possible water shortages.

December brings some relief

The outlook does not mean that every month will be uniformly dry. December is expected to produce a mixed rainfall pattern, with parts of Matabeleland South, southern Midlands and south-western Masvingo having increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall. However, large parts of the country are expected to remain within normal-to-below-normal or below-normal rainfall categories.

Harare Metropolitan, much of Mashonaland West, Mashonaland Central, Mashonaland East and Manicaland are among areas facing an increased probability of below-normal rainfall during December. The northern parts of Midlands and Matabeleland North are also expected to face below-normal conditions.

Heat and storms remain a threat

Despite the dry outlook, the MSD has warned that Zimbabwe should not assume that a dry season means an absence of dangerous weather. Warmer-than-normal conditions are expected during the first three months of the season. The combination of high temperatures, atmospheric instability and erratic rainfall could increase the risk of violent thunderstorms, lightning, strong winds and flash flooding when rainfall does occur.

This means communities may have to prepare for two seemingly contrasting risks: prolonged dry spells and sudden heavy storms. The MSD has recommended water harvesting, irrigation planning, maintenance of drainage systems and public-health preparedness. The department is also urging the public to continue following short-term weather forecasts rather than relying exclusively on the seasonal outlook.

“A seasonal forecast is a long-term planning tool,” the MSD said, stressing that shorter-term forecasts are needed to determine the actual onset of the season and identify individual dry spells and severe weather events. The warning comes after the region's 33rd Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum concluded that most of Southern Africa is likely to experience below-normal rainfall during much of the 2026/27 season, with above-normal temperatures also expected across much of the region.

For Zimbabwe, the message from forecasters is therefore not that rain will disappear, but that farmers, households, businesses and authorities should prepare for a season in which rainfall may arrive late, fall unevenly and be interrupted by prolonged dry spells. The MSD will continue monitoring climate indicators and issue further updates as the season develops.

Zimbabwe 2026/27 rainfall season