Tropical Storm Gezani heads for Madagascar; may intensify to Cat 4

Tropical Storm Gezani satellite

A tropical storm named Gezani, which formed over the south‑west Indian Ocean on 6 February 2026, is tracking westward toward Madagascar and is expected to make landfall on Tuesday, 10 February, meteorological authorities have warned.

The system passed north of Mauritius and Réunion on 7–8 February and, as of 9 February, was about 630 km east of Madagascar with maximum sustained winds near 84 km/h. Forecasts from regional weather services indicate Gezani could strengthen significantly before reaching the island’s east coast.

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) says environmental conditions are favourable for further intensification and that Gezani could reach Category 4 strength before landfall. Models place the likely impact zone between Mananara Avaratra and Vatomandry in Madagascar’s Atsinanana region, where maximum winds at landfall are forecast to reach about 211 km/h.

SAWS warned that after crossing Madagascar, the cyclone is expected to weaken while tracking southwest across the island, then enter the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday, 11 February, where it may re‑intensify over open water.

Mariners operating in the south‑west Indian Ocean and the Mozambique Channel have been urged to exercise caution because of rough seas and strong winds associated with Gezani. SAWS noted there is currently no direct threat to South Africa, but regional services are closely monitoring the storm and issuing updates as conditions evolve.

Madagascar is still recovering from Tropical Cyclone Fytia, which affected the island between 29 January and 4 February, leaving 14 people dead and more than 85,000 people impacted. Authorities warn that strong winds and heavy rainfall are likely over the north‑eastern and eastern parts of the island during the next 72 hours as Gezani approaches.

The Zambia Meteorological Department has issued an alert that Gezani’s interaction with the Inter‑Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) could alter weather patterns across southern Africa. Zambia can expect widespread rainfall between 12 and 14 February, with a heightened risk of flash floods and flooding in low‑lying or poorly drained areas. The Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit (DMMU) is coordinating with the meteorological service to monitor the situation and advise the public to secure property and avoid crossing flooded roads.

SAWS confirmed Gezani is the seventh named system of the 2025/26 south‑west Indian Ocean cyclone season. Regional meteorological agencies are tracking the storm closely and will issue further warnings and guidance to affected populations as forecasts are updated.

Tropical Storm Gezani